The History
Hailing from Bronte in Sydney’s Eastern Suburbs, Radley played his junior rugby league for the Clovelly Crocodiles, before being snapped up by the Sydney Roosters. After impressing for the Roosters U20s team, Radley played for the Junior Kangaroos and NSW U20s in the U20s State of Origin in 2017. By the end of the 2017 season, Radley debuted for the Roosters first grade side. In his three appearances that season, he notched up 150 SuperCoach points as a big minute hooker, averaging 42 in base but providing two try assists. The 2018 season was much more fruitful for Radley, featuring in all but two of the Roosters’ matches. Radley’s 2018 season was a story of two halves. In the first 12 rounds, Radley failed to start one match, averaging 37.6 minutes off the bench at 0.89 PPM. In the final 13 rounds, Radley started 10 games. Three of these starts came in the second row, but with the acquisition of Angus Crichton, there will be no place there for Radley this season. So, Radley’s performances at lock will be analysed here, as there is a chance he could start there this season. In his seven starts at lock in the regular season last year, Radley played between 36-50 minutes in six games, only playing over 50 minutes once (70 minutes in round 16 vs Storm). During this period, Radley averaged 53.6 points per game. However, he scored two tries and provided two try assists in this period, which significantly boosted his average. Going off his base stats, Radley’s average is inflated, as he averaged a mere 36.4 base stats per start at lock. In his four starts at lock without attacking stats, Radley managed to average only 36 PPG, with a max score of 43.
The Comparison
Radley will now be compared to other 2RFs and HOKs of a similar price. The 2RF comparison will be undertaken first, using four 2RFs close to Radley in price.
Firstly Isaiah Papali’i ($462,400) is a guaranteed starter in the Warriors side, either on the left edge or at lock. Last season, his average base of 43.9 (when starting) was higher than Radley’s, and in games without attacking stats, Papali’i still managed to average 51.1 (excluding the outlier score of 12).
Secondly, Cameron Murray ($458,900) will most likely start the season at lock and play around 60-65 minutes. In comparison, if Radley starts at #13, it’s difficult to see him playing that many minutes. Given Murray’s superior PPM of 1.02, he managed to average 62.7 as a starting lock last season, and this was with only one try.
Thirdly, Matt Gillett ($432,900) is a former SuperCoach gun, with a four season average of 61.2 excluding his injury affected 2018. Even with a broken neck last season, he averaged 51.4. Although Gillett may be eased back into action, his appeal is far greater than Radley’s.
Fourthly, Dale Finucane ($432,900) suffered badly from injuries last season, and this was reflected in his SuperCoach output. Now injury free, Finucane could be back to playing as a 60-65 minute lock this season. Historically, when Finucane does this, he is a consistent performer who can roll out 55-65 point performances week in week out.
For those wanting to play Radley at HOK, here is how he compares to other HOKs of a similar price.
Radley’s Roosters teammate, Jake Friend ($481,500), starts the 2019 season hugely under-priced compared to previous seasons. Yes, Friend does cost $80,000 more than Radley, but he is a far safer pick. Friend played the first half of the 2018 season injured. This impacted his minutes and influence on games, which saw his average drop extremely low compared to the 59 and 63 point averages in the two seasons prior. However, once he overcame the injury, he showcased his SuperCoach ability, reverting back to an 80 minute hooking role and averaging 68.6 PPG over the final seven rounds. If Friend is fully fit to start the 2019 season, he will be a far better option at HOK than Radley, even if you need to fork out extra cash.
Furthermore, like Radley, Reed Mahoney ($374,300) is another mid-priced hooker option for SuperCoach in 2019. Expected to wear the number 9 jersey for the Eels this season, Mahoney didn’t have a bad start to his NRL career, averaging 49 PPG as a starting hooker last season. This 49 point average did not include any attacking stats, and was made up almost exclusively of base points. So, Mahoney’s base was higher than Radley’s, but Radley’s explosive potential makes him a more exciting SuperCoach option.
The Fixtures
The Roosters start the 2019 season with five favourable 2RF match ups for Victor Radley. In the first five rounds, they play South Sydney, Manly, Parramatta, Brisbane and Cronulla, teams that all featured in the top six for most points conceded against 2RFs in SuperCoach in 2018.
The Prospects
As previously stated, the Roosters will almost certainly play Crichton and Cordner as 80 minute edge back rowers this season. That leaves, Radley and Isaac Liu to battle it out for the lock position. Last season, Trent Robinson played his #13 for under 55 minutes in 19/24 games. So, even if Radley starts, it’s hard to see him playing any more than 60 minutes. With his high ceiling, he could easily score 80 points in 60 minutes. However, he also has a low floor, and could just as easily score 40 points. Thus, Radley may not earn as much early cash as SuperCoaches are predicting. Such a scenario occurred in 2018, when SuperCoaches had high hopes for a $413,600 priced Jesse Bromwich, who averaged 46.2 PPG over the opening six rounds, making less than 10k. As a 2RF, Radley is an option in the fourth or fifth slot, but both Cameron Murray and Matt Gillett appear even better picks. Similarly, at HOK, Radley is not good enough to be your starting player, but he’s not cheap enough to be a cash cow. So, what is the best approach? I think it’s best to look past Radley for the hooker position in your SuperCoach sides. If you are looking for a starter, fork out the extra cash for a player such as Jack Friend or Andrew McCollough to start, and if you were planning on choosing Radley as a reserve HOK, maybe downgrade him to a cheaper option.
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