Many SuperCoaches opt for the method of captaining the player in their squad that has the highest and best seasonal average, but is this really the best method to gain an advantage on other players? Especially at the start of the season, this is difficult as players and teams aren't yet in their groove.
The litany of talent in the NRL provides many avenues to get a good captain each week that many others either won’t see as a viable option or are too scared to put the orange tag on. Seasonal average provides a good safe bet to who might perform well but it’s not always the strongest option when vying for those small advantages that can get you out of the bog that becomes the mid-season grind in the rankings or league position. A good captaincy choice can get you those tight head-to-head victories.
These are some strategies to look at going into the season that we believe provide more substance to getting a mammoth return on points more regularly.
Three promising approaches to the decision of the captaincy dilemma include,
Ø Form
Ø Player Base Points
Ø Team Fixture Difficulty
FORM
More important than any other factor when selecting a captain in NRL SuperCoach, form plays a huge role in players giving points returns. This seems like a no brainer to SuperCoaches, but form is a component of the game that is commonly misunderstood. Regularly relied upon is player’s seasonal averages, with the higher the score the supposed 'better' captaincy pick. However, seasonal averages can be skewed by one-off monumental games. Granted, towards the end of the NRL season these averages give a good indication of player returns but it is the start of the season when league leads and overall ranks are achieved, as teams are being sorted out and hidden gems are being discovered before other coaches can capitalise. The best form guides to utilise are the 3 and 5 game averages, given in the statistical player tracking tables. This provides fantastic insights into which players are hot, and which are not. Historically, SuperCoach players have form spells that correspond with this statistic. Players generally have a maximum of 3 to 5 top quality games consecutively before dropping back into the pack for their respective positions. Finding players and captaining them while they are on a 2 or 3 game form streak is a wise decision, as statistically it is expected that you can get another 2-3 games of high points returns out of them. Using this tactic can prove fruitful as many SuperCoaches change captains each and every week. Sticking strong and focussing on form guides can gain the edge on other SuperCoaches. In season 2020 a back rower like Angus Crichton appeared to be a safe bet for captaincy as his average was always quite high. But likewise, Isaah Yeo proved last season that he was capable of scoring multiple back-to-back triple figure or near triple figure returns while Crichton wilted around his average. This in turn was flipped as Yeo had off weeks and Crichton produced the above average scoring. This is where the 3 and 5 games hot streak averages are vital. Analyse who is getting hot, put the captain on them and stick for the window of form.
BASE POINTS
The SuperCoach points system is a technical dilemma when attempting to predict the returns you will get when placing the captaincy on certain players. In order to more accurately identify who to captain, SuperCoaches should look at player base points. These include skills and match statistics that a player is almost 100% certain to attain each week, no matter who the opposition that they are playing. Statistical analysis of high work rate players who make significant tackle counts, offloads and hit-ups are good captaincy choices week in week out in SuperCoach, as SuperCoaches are given a base of points to stabilise their team each round. These base points are virtually guaranteed for your team, and very often are boosted with a potential extra return of a try, try assist or line break. Base points apply to both forwards and backs as they excel in different areas of the scoring system. Forwards return high tackle and hit-up points, while outside backs offer hit-up points to go with the lustre of line-breaks and tries. When initially building a SuperCoach team, SuperCoaches should consider base points as their priority. Forwards and hookers, the likes of Damien Cook, Jason Taumalolo, Ryan Matterson, Angus Crichton, Tohu Harris, David Klemmer and Josh Papalii have huge match workloads that majorly benefit SuperCoaches. Along with these stats, attaining and captaining players in your SuperCoach team that are high conversion rate goal kickers can make the difference in league and rank achievements. For every goal converted the player is awarded a hefty 4 points. For high scoring teams such as the Penrith Panthers, Nathan Cleary can become an excellent regular captain choice as he is awarded many additional points for his goal kicking prowess, which essentially forms part of his base. Likewise, a player who is given the kicking duties with massive base points is super lucrative as even if they miss goals and shoot a low percent they are still always guaranteed a little extra compared to others in their position. Sio Siua Taukeiaho is a perfect example of this, as he will be playing 50+ minutes at prop for the Roosters this season and kicking goals.
FIXTURE DIFFICULTY
Opposition quality is necessary to take into account when choosing captains in SuperCoach. Captaining efficient scoring players when they are playing at home has historically proven a good decision. Players are more than likely to better their average scoring output when playing weaker defensive opposition. Players can make more hit-ups in total, with more being over 8 metres (2 points). Additionally more tackle breaks are made which in turn leads to line-breaks and ultimately tries and goals. Captaining goal kicking backline players is a must when fixtures are considered easier than usual. Players like Nathan Cleary, Kalyn Ponga and Ryan Papenhuyzen, and even Zac Lomax or Jarrod Croker, become enticing captain prospects when at home fixtures against teams like the Bulldogs, Broncos and Dragons roll around. However, due to the spread of playing talent in the NRL, more than any other sporting league in Australia, upset losses do occur and your captain mightn't return anything to be desired. However, following a process will provide better differential returns across the season as a whole than not addressing the fixture schedule at all and never planning ahead.
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