Predicted Line Up
1. Jamayne Isaako, 2. Xavier Coates, 3. Tesi Niu, 4. Herbie Farnworth, 5. David Mead, 6. Anthony Milford, 7. Tom Dearden, 8. Patrick Carrigan, 9. Andrew McCullough, 10. Payne Haas, 11. Alex Glenn, 12. Jordan Riki, 13. John Asiata. Interchange: 14. Jake Turpin, 15. Matt Lodge, 16. Tevita Pangai, 17. Thomas Flegler.
Relevant Injury/Team news
Kotoni Staggs will be unavailable until round 13-14 after tearing his ACL last September. Tesi Niu is expected to take Staggs’ spot at right centre.
It remains to be seen who will fill the left centre and left wing positions at the Broncos. The consensus among Broncos fans is that Herbie Farnworth will play left centre, leaving David Mead to play left wing.
Anthony Milford has sustained a hand injury in pre-season and is racing the clock to be fit for round 1.
Payne Haas has been in some legal trouble in pre-season for abusing and intimidating police. His punishment will be announced next week, with a suspension likely.
With John Asiata moving south from North Queensland to Brisbane, Pat Carrigan could move to prop, allowing Asiata to wear the #13 jersey.
There is uncertainty around the edge back row positions at the Broncos. Alex Glenn is expected to fill one of the positions, leaving Jordan Riki and Corey Oates to battle it out for the other spot. Broncos fans seem to think that Riki will win the spot.
Despite playing the majority of his matches last season on the edge, Kevin Walters has indicted that he will use Tevita Pangai as a middle forward this year, only shifting him to the edge if needed.
Goal Kickers
1. Jamayne Isaako, 2. Kotoni Staggs, 3. Herbie Farnworth.
The Guns
Payne Haas ($668,600 | FRF) – Haas is the highest averaging FRF in SuperCoach for two seasons running. He has scored 60+ points in 89% of games across the past two seasons. His minutes will be slightly down this year given the Broncos currently have a fully fit forward pack, but he’s still as safe a pick as you can get. In fact, his PPG was higher in 2019 playing 64 MPG than it was in 2020 playing 72 MPG. Obviously, if he gets suspended as expected however, you shouldn’t start with Haas.
The PODs
Jamayne Isaako ($346,400 | CTW/FLB) – Everyone was keen on Isaako at the start of last season because he was going to be a goal kicking fullback available at CTW. That’s exactly what he will be this season, but his ownership is 5%. Isaako has played 9 career games at fullback for an average of 50 PPG, scoring 50+ points in 66.7% of these matches. The Broncos attack has to improve this season (surely it can’t get any worse), so you’d think that Isaako will average closer to 50-55 PPG, rather than 39 PPG like last season.
The Players of Interest
Anthony Milford ($304,600 | 5/8) – Despite a horror 2020 season for the Milf, new coach Kevin Walters has been impressed with him in pre-season and is considering handing him the captaincy in 2021. His base 14 PPG is horrendous, but as he has shown in the past (a long time ago now), he does have massive attacking upside, and he’s very cheap. He’s probably not one to start with, especially given his recent hand injury, but if the Broncos look good in attack early in the season, Milford could be one to consider.
The Cheapies
Matt Lodge ($299,000 | FRF) – Another player who had a horror 2020 season, Lodge only managed 6 games for an average of 38 PPG at 0.89 PPM. Now back to full fitness, Lodge should return to his former self PPM-wise, where he scored at 1.13 and 1.10 PPM in 2018 and 2019 respectively. He probably won’t start (he might for a few rounds if Haas gets suspended), but if he can manage 40-45 minutes off the bench, he should be able to score 45-50 PPG, which will give you solid points and earn you cash.
Jordan Riki ($277,500 | 2RF) – The young back-rower made his debut last season and immediately impressed fans of the game. He’s a strong runner of the ball and isn’t afraid to get involved defensively, evidenced by his base PPM of 0.63, which is very good for an edge back-rower (the best among edge back-rowers last season was Angus Crichton with 0.76 BPPM, and Riki’s BPPM was better than the likes of John Bateman and David Fifita). If he starts, he’s nearly must own, even if he only plays 60-65 minutes.
Tesi Niu ($232,500 | CTW/FLB) – The injury to Kotoni Staggs will see Niu line up at right centre for the opening portion of the 2021 season. Niu played 14 games at centre for Souths Logan in the Queensland Cup in 2019, scoring 6 tries and providing 4 try assists. He’s probably not going to be a high upside cheapie, but averaging a hit up every 4.97 minutes last season (albeit from fullback), he’ll be a safe enough option who just needs to crash over for a try or two and he’ll make some money.
The Players to Avoid/Be wary of
Tevita Pangai ($616,200 | FRF/2RF) – Pangai’s a SuperCoach option who I am nervous to own when I have him, but nervous not to own when I don’t have him. He was brilliant last season, averaging 70 PPG thanks to a solid base of 43 PPG and another 20 PPG in offloads, tackle busts and line breaks. However, due to his own stupidity, he only played 9 games. Walters has indicated that Pangai will be used in the middle this season, and given how stacked the Broncos are with middle forwards, the minutes probably won’t be there to justify picking Pangai at over $600k.
Patrick Carrigan ($591,700 | 2RF) – Carrigan played 70+ minutes in 10/19 games last season, which saw him average 67 PPG in his rookie year. This season however, he’ll be vying with Haas, Lodge, Pangai, Asiata, Flegler and even Oates for minutes in the middle. It’s hard to see him getting massive minutes with all these other middle forwards, so some regression is expected.
John Asiata ($252,100 | 2RF/FRF) – Asiata only averages 39 PPG as a starting forward over the last 3 seasons. He’s not going to get enough minutes to be relevant.
Kotoni Staggs ($518,200 | CTW) – He’s out injured until half way through the season, so don’t pick him.
Corey Oates ($245,500 | CTW/2RF) – After years of trying, Oates will be transitioning to the forwards this season. Walters has stated that he will use Oates in the middle and on an edge during the transition, but unless he can snag a starting spot and get 65+ minutes, he’s not an option.
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