The History
Ever since his NRL debut back in the 2016 season, Nathan Cleary has been a SuperCoach superstar. As an 18 year old in his debut season, Cleary averaged 66 PPG, with three 100s and a 90 in 13 games. In 2017, Cleary improved even further, averaging 70 PPG. 2018 wasn’t as kind to Cleary, as he missed numerous weeks through injury, but he still averaged 62 PPG (65 PPG if you take out his injured affected 13 in round 3). In his 38 matches since he became a full time first grade player, Cleary has scored 70+ SuperCoach points in 19 games. So, he has scored 70+ points in 50% of his matches. Furthermore, due to his career base average of 26, as well as the fact that he kicks goals, Cleary rarely registers shocking scores, as he will always have a source of points even if attacking stats do not come. This is evidenced by the fact that in 38 matches, he has scored 50+ points 30 times, so in 79% of games. Additionally, when Cleary does not score 70+, he still manages to average a solid 48.1 PPG. Moreover, in Cleary’s 52 NRL games, he has scored 18 tries and assisted 27, at a rate of almost one attacking return every game. Last year, Cleary season’s was a bit stop-start, but after the Origin period, he sprung to life, averaging 74 PPG from rounds 19-25. A highlight of Cleary’s performances last season was his support plays. In fact, he averaged 19.4 support plays per game. As a result, by following the play and getting himself into great attacking positions, Cleary was always a try scoring threat, even if he himself was not the one running the ball.
The Comparison
With 50% of Cleary’s scores in the last two seasons being 70+ and 79% being 50+, he is absolutely an elite SuperCoach halfback. Really, there are only two, or maybe three, other elite SuperCoach halfbacks: Shaun Johnson, Daly Cherry-Evans and Michael Morgan (if you look at his stats while wearing the #7 jersey only). In comparison to Cleary over last two seasons, Shaun Johnson has only scored 70+ in 38.9% of his games, and 50+ on 75% of occasions. SJ’s average when he does not score 70+ is 47.8 PPG, compared to Cleary’s average of 48.1 PPG. Thus, Cleary betters SJ in all three of these categories. Over the same period, Daly Cherry-Evans has scored 70+ points in 35.4% of his games, which is considerably less than Cleary. Moreover, DCE has scored 50+ points in 64.6% of his games in the last two seasons, which is far less than both Cleary and SJ. However, since taking up the goal kicking duties at the Sea Eagles in 2018, DCE’s 50+ percentage increased to 75%, the same as SJ. Finally, when he didn’t score 70+ last season, DCE did managed to average 48.1 PPG, better than SJ and the same as Cleary. Finally, based off his sublime 2017 season where he averaged 60.5 wearing the #7 jersey, Michael Morgan can be considered a gun halfback. However, he is nowhere near the aforementioned three players. While playing halfback, Morgan scored 70+ SuperCoach points in 38.5% of his matches, and 50+ points in 53.8% of games. However, what sets Morgan behind Cleary, SJ and DCE is the fact that when he doesn’t score 70+ at halfback, he only averages a mere 37.8, some 10+ points behind the top three halfback guns.
The Fixtures
Apart from a tough round 3 game against the Storm at Bathurst, the Panthers have one of the easiest draws to start the season. In their first five matches, they play three of the top four leakiest defences in 2018 (Eels, Knights and Titans). They also play the Tigers at home, a team they have beaten four times in a row and scored an averaged of 29.2 points per game against in their last five encounters. Indeed, Cleary historically scores well against all four of the Eels, Knights, Tigers and Titans, averaging 54, 77, 80 and 63 PPG against each of these respective teams. Should Cleary again be selected for Origin duty, he will miss the Panthers' round 12 game against the Sea Eagles. Expect him to also be rested in another game or two, as that is what occurred last season after the Origin period concluded.
The Prospects
With his 2018 injury concerns now behind him, expect Nathan Cleary to go up a level in 2019. Based on his SuperCoach history, he is a rare player. In fact, statistically, he is a better SuperCoach option than Shaun Johnson, who is considered one of the greatest SuperCoach halfbacks of all-time. Last season, Cleary relinquished the goal-kicking duties for a few weeks to help his knee recover, but he undoubtedly remains the first choice kicker at the Panthers. Given that the Panthers play some leaky defences to open the season, Cleary should be able to maintain, if not better, his SuperCoach scoring average of 21 PPG last time he was a full-time goal-kicker. Playing under his father, Nathan will be keen to impress early in the season, and he has the perfect chance to do so, stating that he is more prepared than ever. Honestly, I expect Cleary to average 70+ this season and overtake Shaun Johnson as the best halfback in SuperCoach.
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