The Stats
Over the years, Mitchell Moses has been a SuperCoach option for the brave only. This was due to his ‘rocks or diamonds’ scores.
From 2016-2018, Moses played 69 games. In 21.7% of these games, he scored 70+ points, averaging 95.5 in these games. In 46.4% of these games, he scored <45, at a mere average of 25.1. That means he either scored large, or completely failed, evidenced by the fact that he only returned a score between 45-69 in 31.9% of games over this period.
However, in 2019, Moses shrugged off this inconsistency (for the most part at least). Delivering big points regularly, Moses finished the season with an average of 62.3 PPG.
In 2019, Moses scored 70+ in 33.3% of games at an average of 95.4. When he scored <45, which he did in 25% of games, he averaged 29.8. In the other 41.7% of games, Moses scored between 45-69 points.
Although the averages stayed fairly similar, it is clear to see how Moses became far more consistent. His 70+% increased by 11.6%, his <45% decreased by a huge 21.4%, and his 45-69% increased by 9.8%.
As a result, he made his SuperCoach owners happy more often than not.
Moses’ success in 2019 can be largely attributed to his creativity and goal-kicking exploits. Finishing the season with a career high 29 try assists, Moses scored a league high 348 try assist points, 60 points clear of the next best (he also had 9 try contributions). Moreover, he scored 344 points from converted goals, placing 2nd behind Adam Reyonld’s 348, and sitting 122 points ahead of 3rd placed Nathan Cleary.
The Comparison
Let’s now compare Moses’ 2019 stats to those of the other 60+ averaging SuperCoach halfbacks: Nathan Cleary ($631,500), Shaun Johnson ($585,500) and Daly Cherry-Evans ($576,200).
In terms of creative points per game (PPG), Moses ranked 3rd with 25, behind DCE and Johnson (both 27), and ahead of Cleary (17).
In the evasive category, Moses didn’t do as well, only averaging 8 evasive PPG, which was less than DCE (11), Cleary (11) and Johnson (10). This is because Moses was the least prolific runner of the ball out of the ‘big 4’ halfbacks, only averaging 5 runs per game, behind Johnson (6), DCE (6) and Cleary (10).
Furthermore, Moses ranked 2nd for scoring PPG with 14, behind Cleary (19) but ahead of Johnson (12) and DCE (8).
Cleary has the highest percentage of 60+ scores out of the ‘big 4’ with 57%, followed by Johnson (53%), Moses (50%) and DCE (42%).
Although Cleary comes out on top in most of these categories, it is still very even between all of Moses, Cleary, Johnson and DCE.
This evenness continues when looking at the players’ averages when scoring 60+ and when scoring <60.
When scoring 60+, DCE goes the biggest, averaging 92.9, followed by Cleary (89), SJ (85.7) and Moses (85.3).
When scoring <60, SJ does the best, averaging 42.1, followed by Cleary (39.9), DCE (39.6) and Moses (39).
Therefore, although Moses doesn’t statistically stand out from the other gun halfbacks, they all offer a similar SuperCoach output.
The Fixtures
A real appeal of going with Moses from round 1 is Parramatta’s fixtures.
The Eels play 3/5 games to start the season at Bankwest Stadium, where Moses averages 72 PPG and scores 60+ points in 70% of his games.
The other grounds Moses will play out over the first 2 months of the season are CBUS Super Stadium (scored 99 there last year), ANZ Stadium (scored 112 last time he played there) and TIO Stadium (scored 64 there last year).
Moreover, in his first 8 games, Moses will play 6 of last year’s bottom 5 (plays the Bulldogs twice).
These fixtures suggest Moses will start the year with a bang.
It is also worth noting that the Eels play the first bye in round 12. Assuming Moses doesn’t play Origin, he will be a valuable number for that round.
The Prospects
Mitchell Moses’ prospects are looking pretty good to start this season, and with the mentoring of Andrew Johns, Moses’ game could go to another level in 2020.
The statistics and comparisons show that Moses’ SuperCoach output in 2019 was very similar to that of the other gun halfbacks.
The highest averaging halfback last season was Nathan Cleary, who averaged 68.0 PPG. However, Cleary did score a mammoth 186 points at home to the Knights in the final game of the season. The performance of the Knights in this game was absolutely atrocious, and one of the worst performances I have ever seen. It seemed like the Knights stopped trying, and Cleary capitalised on this. Such a SuperCoach score is a rare occurrence for a halfback. The last time Cleary scored 140+ in a game was in 2017, and he didn’t ton up at all in 2018.
Therefore, if you take out Cleary’s ridiculous 186 against a beyond shocking Knights side, he averaged 62.05 for the 2019 season – LESS than Moses.
No matter who you pick at halfback, you’ll miss out on some big hauls from the players you left out. However, in the long run, the points should even out, and expect Moses to be a 60+ averaging halfback again this season.
Thus, although Cleary may average slightly more than Moses, picking up the Eels halfback for $52,200 less could be a smart piece of business given how even the stats are.
UP NEXT: BRISBANE BRONCOS 2020 SUPERCOACH PREVIEW