The History
Josh Hodgson debuted in the NRL in round 1, 2015, after playing 134 games for Hull Kingston Rovers in the English Super League. Since debuting for the Raiders, Hodgson has played 84 games for the Green Machine. Over the years, Hodgson has been a very solid SuperCoach hooker, averaging 54, 62, 54, and 63 in his four seasons in the NRL. After tearing his ACL for England at the 2017 Rugby League World Cup, Hodgson returned to action in round 15 last season, and immediately returned to form, registering nine try assists and one try in 11 games. Historically, Hodgson has never scored well in base points, averaging only 37 PPG in base over the past three seasons. In fact, in three seasons, Hodgson has only ever scored 50+ in base twice. Due to this, when Hodgson does not register attacking stats, he rarely scores well, averaging only 40.1 without attacking stats. This is also due to his inability to regularly break tackles, never averaging more than 1.4 tackle breaks per game in his four NRL seasons. Luckily though, he does register quite regular attacking stats, making up for his lack of base and evasive stats. Over his 57 games in the past three seasons, Hodgson has returned attacking stats (tries/try assists) in 33 games, so 57.9% of his matches. In fact, he has registered 57 tries/try assists in 84 games. Indeed, Hodgson has scored over 20+ creative points in 24 matches during the past three seasons. Equally though, Hodgson has scored under 50 points in 36.8% of his games over this period, and under 40 points in 15.8% of his matches.
The Comparison
Over the past three seasons, the best that Hodgson has ever finished for average base PPG among hookers was 10th (in 2017), ending last season at 17th, 15 points behind Damien Cook at 1st. Hodgson averaged 36.8 tackles per game last season, putting him in 15th out of all hookers. Although he fared better for dummy half runs per game (3.7), Hodgson could still only rank 9th among hookers for that statistic last season. Whilst he is not a noted tackle breaker, Hodgson ranks around the same as Jake Friend and Andrew McCollough for tackle breaks per game. It’s a different story for average creative PPG over the last three seasons though, finishing 1st, 4th and 1st. Last season, Hodgson managed to beat Robbie Farah in 2nd place by 11 PPG. In fact, on average, Hodgson was the 4th most creative player in the whole competition last season.
When looking at Hodgson’s scores over the last two seasons, for someone of his price, he doesn’t score any better than cheaper options. From 2017-2018, Hodgson scored 70+ points in 29% of his matches, which is the same as Andrew McCullough ($505,300) (29%) and greater than Jake Friend ($481,500) (19%). Over this same period, Hodgson scored 50+ points in 62% of his matches, whilst both McCullough and Friend managed to scored 50+ points in 63% of their matches. When scoring 70+ points, Hodgson averages 82 points, compared to Friend’s 88 and McCullough’s 81. Finally, when scoring <70 points in games from 2017-2018, Hodgson averages 47, whereas McCullough and Friend both average 48.
The Fixtures
Hodgson and the Raiders have one of the easier draws to begin the 2019 season. Although they play five away games in the first 11 rounds, these do include favourable trips to the Gold Coast, North Queensland and Manly. The weather will probably be hot and humid in these games, which is never good for away sides, but Hodgson averages above 55 against each of these teams. Six matches at GIO Stadium also await the Raiders in the first 11 rounds, with the matches against the Eels, Knights, and Cowboys looking particularly good from a SuperCoach front. However, worryingly for Hodgson owners, most of the Raiders’ favourable fixtures are against teams that defended well against opposition hookers last season. In fact, apart from playing the Cowboys twice (1st for SuperCoach points conceded against hookers in 2018), Hodgson will have some tough matchups, with the next leakiest defence against hookers being the Titans, who ranked 7th. Importantly though, the Raiders then play the round 12 bye. In that game, they play the Bulldogs, a team who Hodgson averages 61.8 against.
The Prospects
Currently owned by 15% of SuperCoaches, Hodgson is the 5th most popular HOK so far. Due to his creative potential and high ceiling, as well as playing the first bye, this is easy to understand. However, what worries me with Hodgson, as it always has, is that he could as easily score under 45 as he could above 70. Having someone like that in SuperCoach is always nerve-wracking. The rule is that a player is always better in their second season back from an ACL injury. However, Hodgson registered career best numbers in his return season. Therefore, it would be tough to see him scoring any better than he did in the back half of last season. The addition of ‘try contributions’ to the SuperCoach point scoring system should provide Hodgson will some additional points, but he is still a significant way behind other hookers due to his low base and inconsistency. Therefore, although Hodgson is worthy of consideration, $592,100 appears too much to fork out for him to begin the season, when Jake Friend and Andrew McCollough are around 100k less, and Damien Cook is around 130k more. For that price, you need someone who can score around 55+ each game, and unfortunately, Hodgson is not that man. If his price drops, he will certainly be an excellent pick up before round 12. For now though, you’d only get Hodgson if you have a back up who can rotate with him. At his price though, he costs too much to not be in your 17 man squad every week. Thus, to start the season, your money can probably be better spent elsewhere.
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