The Stats
What a year Cam Murray had in 2019. Not only did he break into the Rabbitohs starting side after playing largely a bench role in 2018, Murray also debuted for the New South Wales and Australia.
From a SuperCoach viewpoint, his 2019 campaign can be viewed in three thirds.
In the first third (rounds 1-11), Murray averaged 73.7 PPG in 61.5 MPG.
In the second third throughout the Origin period (rounds 12-17), Murray averaged 47.5 PPG in 47.8 MPG.
In the final third which was the post-Origin period (rounds 18-25), Murray averaged 74.4 PPG in 62.1 MPG.
It is clear that Murray began and ended the season very well, but had a quiet patch mid season when Origin duties took a toll on his minutes and workload.
Murray’s biggest appeal last season was his attacking upside.
In 23 games last season (1357 minutes), Murray scored a huge 10 tries. This was up from his 1 try in 1054 in 2018.
To go with these 10 tries, Murray made 9 line breaks and averaged 11 evasive PPG. Indeed, despite being a middle forward, not an edge backrower, Murray was one of the best scoring 2RFs last season in the attacking points category.
Murray scored equally well in base points in 2019, again finishing amongst the top echelon of 2RFs. Making 35 tackles and 11 hit ups per game (58.1% HU8), Murray averaged 51 PPG in base last season.
Although he did do well in both the attacking and base categories individually, Murray was only a top tier 2RF last season due to his prolific try scoring.
In games where he scored a try last season, Murray averaged 88.5, but worryingly, he only averaged 59.2 in games where he did not cross the line.
The Comparison
Murray starts the 2020 season as the 3rd most expensive 2RF, priced at $644,900. But, how do his numbers stack up against others in his position?
Murray finished 8th for base PPG among 2RFs in 2019. Making 796 tackles, Murray ranked 8th among 2RFs, finishing 144 points behind Jake Trbojevic in 1st, and also behind James Fisher-Harris (940), Josh Jackson (835), Ryan Matterson (822), Isaiah Papali'I (806), Jazz Tevaga (806) and Victor Radley (797). He also finished 30th among 2RFs for HU8 points, and 10th for HU points.
Whilst he didn’t top the above categories, Murray was by far the top scoring 2RF for try points (170) in 2019. The 2ndhighest for try points was Mitch Barnett (119 points), and Jason Taumalolo was the next highest try scoring middle forward (51 points). This suggests that to remain a SuperCoach gun, Murray must continue scoring tries.
However, his 2019 try scoring exploits appear unsustainable for both a middle forward or edge forward. This can be observed through the examples of Paul Vaughan, Jake Trbojevic and Ryan James, Gavin Cooper, Tariq Sims and Elliott Whitehead. The career best SuperCoach seasons for these players were the seasons where they had their career best try scoring seasons (James 11 tries in 2016, Vaughan 8 tries in 2017, Trbojevic 9 tries in 2018, Cooper 13 tries in 2018, Sims 10 tries in 2018, Whitehead 10 tries in 2018). But, when the tries dried up in the following seasons, the SuperCoach averages of these players dropped by between 10-15 points each.
Let’s now look at how Murray’s value as a 2RF SuperCoach option will be impacted by less tries in 2020. As stated in the above section, Murray only averaged 59.2 in games without a try last season. This was the lowest average for games without a try among the top 2RF options. In comparison, Jason Taumalolo averaged 75.4 PPG when not scoring a try last season, while John Bateman averaged 70.0 PPG, Cameron McInnes averaged 67.1 PPG, James Fisher-Harris averaged 64.3 PPG and Ryan Matterson averaged 63.7 PPG. Jake Trbojevic (61.7 PPG) and Jai Arrow (60.0 PPG) also averaged higher than Murray when not scoring a try, despite them averaging less overall for the season.
Therefore, if the tries stop flowing for Cam Murray in 2020, he will no longer be a stand out SuperCoach option compared to other 2RFs.
The Fixtures
Murray was largely fixture proof last season. Against top 6 sides, Murray averaged 65.5 PPG. In contrast, he averaged 76.0 PPG against bottom 4 sides. Although he averaged significantly higher against the lower standing teams in the NRL, Murray’s average against top 6 sides is still in SuperCoach keeper territory.
With this said, Murray will have some tough matchups to begin the season, playing against sides that defend 2RFs well. In particular, these games are the Sharks, Broncos and Storm, who ranked 14th, 11thand 16th respectively for points conceded to 2RFs last season.
The Prospects
While Cam Murray’s prospects for the 2020 season remain strong, he is not among the most appealing 2RFs to start the season.
First of all, Wayne Bennett has stated that Murray will start the season playing on an edge, shifting to lock at times during games. This will most likely reduce Murray’s base as he will take less hit ups and make less tackles. With this said, playing on the edge will provide opportunities for tries though.
Yet, none of the other top tier 2RFs are as reliant on tries for their points as Murray. As a result, if the tries don’t come to open the season, which they mightn’t against some tough defences, his price could drop significantly.
As well as this, you may fall a bit behind in terms of points, as the likes of Taumalolo, McInnes, Matterson, Fisher-Harris, Trbojevic and Arrow all average significantly higher than Murray when not scoring a try, but can be purchased for a similar or cheaper price.
Moreover, currently in 31% of SuperCoach sides, he’s not a high ceiling POD either.
Therefore, it could be a smarter strategy to pick Murray up later in the season.
We’re not saying that Murray will fail in 2020, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see his SuperCoach average drop from the 65-75 PPG 60-65PPG.
UP NEXT: SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS 2020 SUPERCOACH PREVIEW
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