Predicted Line Up
1. Matt Moylan, 2. Josh Morris, 3. Bronson Xerri, 4. Jesse Ramien, 5. Ronaldo Mulitalo, 6. Shaun Johnson, 7. Chad Townsend, 8. Andrew Fifita, 9. Blayke Brailey, 10. Aaron Woods, 11. Briton Nikora, 12.Wade Graham, 13. Jack Williams. Interchange: 14. Billy Magoulias, 15. Jayson Bukuya, 16. Toby Rudolf, 17. Braden Hamlin-Uele.
Relevant Injury/Team news
Bronson Xerri underwent a shoulder reconstruction in October. He is expected to be fit for round 1.
There has been some controversy surrounding Josh Dugan, with the star back reportedly seeking a medical retirement due to knee problems. Although this seems most unlikely, he has not trained in pre-season, so don’t expect to see him playing in round 1.
Reports are that Josh Morris has requested a release from the Sharks so that he can join the Roosters. This request has been denied.
Andrew Fifita had a knee cleanout before Christmas. He will miss the All Stars game but is expected to be fit for the trials.
Cameron King is a chance to appear on the bench as an interchange hooker, but coach John Morris may opt for four forwards (with Billy Magoulias filling in at hooker if need be).
Goal Kickers
1. Shaun Johnson, 2. Chad Townsend, 3. Matt Moylan
The Guns
Shaun Johnson ($585,500 | HFB/5/8) – SJ starts this season cheap after his lowest averaging season in quite a while. For SJ, a low season is 63.0 PPG. If you take out his injury affected round 7 game, his average jumps to 66.6 PPG, and his percentage of 60+ scores to 56%. Johnson really came to life in the post Origin period, where he averaged 82 PPG. He excelled creatively last season, scoring nearly 30 creative points per game, and if you combine this with a pure base of around 20, his tackle breaking ability and the fact that he kicks goals, Johnson should average around 65-70 PPG this season. He has also come out and publicly stated that his body wasn’t right last season but that it’s in top shape this year, boosting his SuperCoach prospects.
Bronson Xerri ($523,500 | CTW) – Xerri was one of the breakout starts of 2019. In 20 games (I’m excluding his injury affected round 14 game), he scored 13 tries and provided 9 try assists, averaging 58.9 PPG and scoring 50+ points in 55% of games. This could have been so much better if Xerri had not dropped the ball multiple times across the season when he had a free run to the try line. With an NRL season under his belt and now playing outside Wade Graham fulltime, expect Xerri to improve this season. He is a POD, but Xerri could be a genuine gun this season.
The PODs
Briton Nikora ($557,600 | 2RF) – Although Nikora is no longer dual 2RF/CTW, his SuperCoach relevance is not over. His base in the mid-40s is not great, but it’s better than some other expensive edge 2RFs (e.g. Kikau, Graham, Harawira-Naera). Running off Shaun Johnson, Nikora made more line breaks than any other 2RF last season. With SJ now back to full fitness and with the combination more developed than it was to start last year, expect Nikora to continue pumping out attacking stats.
Jesse Ramien ($422,000 | CTW) – Ramien only scored 2 tries last season, and still managed to average 45 PPG. Without doing anything spectacular in attack, he accumulated points through 14 tackles per game, 12 hit ups per game (7 being HU8) and 4 tackle breaks per game. In fact, Ramien had the 2nd best runs per tackle break percentage among CTWs, breaking a tackle in 36% of his hit ups. To put this in perspective, the best tackling breaking CTW, Latrell Mitchell, broke a tackle in 37.2% of his runs. If Ramien can add a few more tries and line breaks to his game, he can be a 55-60 PPG averaging CTW, with a floor of around 40.
The Players of Interest
Aaron Woods ($450,400 | FRF) – Woods is a former gun, averaging 61 PPG in 2016 and 63 PPG in 2017. In the past 2 seasons, he has dropped to 51 PPG in 2018 and 48 PPG in 2019. However, last season his PPM jumped to 1.08, which is what it was at when he was a gun FRF. With Matt Prior moving on, Woods should start at prop this season. If he can boost his minutes to around 50-55 MPG, his 2019 average of 15 hit ups and 22 tackles per game should rise, meaning we could see Woods averaging around 55-60 PPG.
Jack Williams ($397,200 | 2RF) – For a while now, there’s been question marks as to who will take over from Paul Gallen’s #13 jersey once he retires. The answer appears to be Jack Williams. After coming off the bench a few times in 2018 and scoring at 1.09 PPM, Williams took the field for the Sharks in 23 times last season, and scored at an impressive 1.14 PPM. Playing 37 MPG, Williams scored 36 PPG in pure base (tackles + hit ups) alone. At 38 years of age, Gallen averaged 49 MPG last season. So, Williams can expect to receive a similar amount of minutes in 2020.
The Cheapies
Blayke Brailey ($201,000 | HOK) – With his brother Jayden moving on, Blayke will take over the #9 jersey for the Sharks. His stats aren’t outstanding, but they are solid enough. He has averaged 33 tackles per game in his ISP career for the Newton Jets to date, so that will be his SuperCoach floor. In 32 ISP games, he has made 13 try assists, forced 7 drop outs and offloaded 16 times. He has started 1 NRL game (round 14 last season), where he scored 37 points in 80 minutes. Therefore, if Brailey scores around 35-40 points each week with the occasional 60 point score, he can average around 45 PPG. This average would see Brailey make around 200k before being time to sell him.
Billy Magoulias ($221,700 | 2RF) – Magoulias could eventually be a SuperCoach gun. He works hard in defence (39 tackles per game last season in the ISP), and is skilful in attack (3 tries, 4 try assists, 3 forced drop outs). But, with a PPM of 0.96, he won’t receive enough minutes to be able to score well enough to generate lots of cash.
Toby Rudolf ($171,900 | FRF) – Rudolf will be a top cheapie if he can earn 25-30 MPG. He made 30 tackles, 1 offload, 4 tackle breaks and 13 hit ups per game last season. An average of 30 should see him make about $100k.
Avoid/Be wary of
Josh Dugan ($471,400 | FLB/CTW) – I originally had Dugan as a POD option given that he averages 59 PPG as a winger. However, with all this uncertainty surrounding his future, he’s a no go.
Matt Moylan ($421,600 | FLB/5/8) – Moylan is too injury prone to be considered an option at this stage. He only played 11 games last season, and no more than 4 in a row. When he was on the park, he didn’t set the world alight either, only averaging 45 PPG.
Wade Graham ($530,800 | 2RF) – Graham could be placed in the POD category, but he’s a risk probably not worth taking. In his first 5 games back from injury last season, he averaged 69.6 PPG. But, Graham then went on to average just 41.5 PPG in his next 4 games. Put it this way, if he returns an attacking stat (which he’s more than capable of doing) you’ve done well, but if he doesn’t, then you’ll be paying $530k for someone whose floor can be as low as 25 points.
Andrew Fifita ($553,900 | FRF) – It pains me to write this, but Andrew Fifita’s time as a must have SuperCoach FRF appears over. His PPM of 1.21 is still beast like, but due to his niggling injuries, Fifita’s time on the park may be reduced going forward. Prior to his hamstring injury in round 9 last season, Fifita played 50+ minutes in 7/8 games at an average of 62 MPG and 1.12 PPM. After that injury however, Fifita played 50+ minutes in 3/11 games at an average of 44 MPG and 1.17 PPM. Fifita will return to the starting side this season, but don’t expect him to play big minutes every week like in previous seasons.
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