Predicted Line Up
1. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad, 2. Bailey Simonsson , 3. Jarrod Croker, 4. Nick Cotric, 5. Michael Oldfield, 6. Jack Wighton, 7. George Williams, 8. Josh Papalii, 9. Josh Hodgson, 10. Dunamis Lui, 11. John Bateman, 12. Elliott Whitehead, 13. Joseph Tapine. Interchange: 14. Sam Williams, 15. Corey Horsburgh, 16. Sia Soliola, 17. Emre Guler.
Relevant Injury/Team news
New signing Curtis Scott has recovered from a syndesmosis injury suffered playing for the Australian Prime Minister’s XIII, but it now appears that he will be stood down by the NRL and not available for round 1.
If Scott is stood down, Nick Cotric will play right centre, with Michael Oldfield coming onto the wing.
Hudson Young is suspended until round 6 for his eye gouge last season. This may limit the money making of cheapie Emre Guler.
John Bateman has undergone minor shoulder surgery, but there is no return date as of yet. If he is not fit to start the season, Tapine will most likely shift to an edge, with Ryan Sutton coming into the side at lock.
Goal kickers
1. Jarrod Croker, 2. Sam Williams
The Guns
John Bateman ($668,200 | 2RF) – The Englishman scored 60+ points in 75% of his games last season. He made 33 tackles and 12 hit ups per game, and scored 10+ evasive points in 15/19 games. He’s no longer available at CTW, but that doesn’t matter because he was still the 2nd highest averaging 2RF last season. However, if he’s unavailable to start the season due to injury, you’ll obviously need to look elsewhere.
Jarrod Croker ($494,900 | CTW) – This one might seem a bit controversial given that Croker was only the 13th highest averaging CTW out those who played 10+ games last season. But, Croker ranked 2nd for percentage of scores 60+ last season, only marginally behind Latrell Mitchell. Croker scored 60+ in 54% of his games. His average was heavily impacted by 4 scores of <25 points. Yet, in the 3 seasons prior to last year, Croker only scored <25 in 2/58 80 minute games. This suggests that Croker’s <25 scores may have been an anomaly, and expect his floor to sit closer to 30 points this season, not 15 points. Moreover, Croker has an excellent record against his opponents to start the season, averaging 61 vs Titans, 62 vs Warriors and 66 vs Dragons over his career.
The PODs
Jack Wighton ($497,000 | 5/8) – Wighton was hot and cold last season, scoring 60+ in 9/23 games, but scoring <40 in 8/23 games. Negative points from errors/penalties/kicks dead really impacted Wighton, who finished with the 2nd most negative points out of any 5/8. However, a season average of 53.5 PPG is still pretty good for someone playing his first full season in the #6 jersey. By the end of the season, Wighton looked at home in his new position, and tore up the finals series. Our calculations estimate that in the finals series, Wighton scored 53 points vs Storm, 63 points vs Rabbitohs and 77 points in the Grand Final vs Roosters. That’s an average of 64.3 PPG. If he can carry that form into the new season, he’ll be one to watch.
Nick Cotric ($364,400 | CTW) – With Curtis Scott likely to be stood down, Nick Cotric should move to right centre. When playing 80 minutes, he averaged 50.4 PPG at right centre last season. This rise in average compared to the wing is due to an increase in base stats and tackle breaks. He comes in quite cheap after only scoring 4 tries last season, so there’s plenty of room for improvement this season.
The Players of Interest
George Williams ($330,800 | HFB/5/8) – The Englishman delivered some highly impressive numbers in the English Super League last season. He had 14 hit ups and 17 tackles per game, scored 14 tries, assisted 21 tries, broke 122 tackles, made 18 line breaks and threw 46 offloads. @scplaybook1 has estimated that his average would have been 74.8 PPG last season. He obviously won’t be as dominant in the NRL, but he has a SuperCoach friendly style of play and should at least earn you some precious cash.
Joe Tapine ($362,400 | 2RF) – Tapine is now the starting #13 at the Raiders. His PPM as a starting lock in recent seasons is 1.01. After working his way back from injury last season, Tapine built up to a 60 minute lock role, where he averaged 76.5 PPG, including 52 PPG in base. However, injury struck him down again and he didn’t play for the rest of the season. If he can stay fit and play 60 MPG, he will be a strong option and quite underpriced.
The Cheapies
Emre Guler ($220,700 |FRF) – Guler has recorded PPMs of 1.1 and 1.0 in his career thus far. If he can nab a bench spot and play 30-40 MPG, he will earn some cash.
Avoid/Be wary of
Josh Papalii ($605,300 | FRF) – Papalii is a gun, but he’s an avoid to start the season. In 2018, Papa averaged 45.8 PPG from round 1-4, and in 2019, he averaged 46.0 PPG from round 1-4. This saw him drop nearly $100k early in the season on both occasions. He’ll be an option later in the season, but avoid for now.
Josh Hodgson ($505,800 | HOK) – As good as Hodgson is, we can never recommend picking him to start the season. His base of 36 PPG is poor, and although he does register regular try assists, that’s not enough to make him an elite SuperCoach hooker. You can’t pay over $500k for a hooker who only scored 60+ points 6 times in an entire season.
Elliott Whitehead ($480,900 | 2RF) – Whitehead scored <50 in 54% of games last season, and only managed a single 60+ score without a try/try assist.
Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad ($529,700 | FLB) – With an NRL season as a starting player and a full pre-season under his belt, CNK should be even better this season in SuperCoach. However, it’s tough to make a case to buy him given the other great fullback options. Teddy, Turbo, Papenhuyzen, Ponga, RTS and Holmes are all ahead of him.
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