The Stats
Since making his NRL debut in round 4, 2019, Chanel Harris-Tavita, or ‘CHT,‘ has shown glimpses of brilliance, but hasn’t lived up to his potential yet.
Across his 19 career starts in the halves, CHT has averaged a respectable 49.8 PPG.
36.8% of his scores when starting have been 60+, 47.4% have been between 30-59, while only 15.8% have been <30.
Since becoming the starting halfback at the Warriors in round 13 last season however, CHT’s SuperCoach output increased substantially.
In his 7 games as starting halfback at the back end of last season, CHT averaged 65.4 PPG.
His base of 22 PPG is about average for a halfback, but this base is boosted once you consider the fact that he kicks goals.
Over this 7 game period, CHT delivered 2 tries as well as 8 try assists and 7 forced drop outs.
The Comparison
Let’s see how Harris-Tavita’s numbers stack up in comparison to other halves.
Obviously, the ‘big guns’ like Nathan Cleary, Daly Cherry-Evans, Cameron Munster and Cody Walker are significantly ahead of Harris-Tavita in pretty much all areas.
So, we’ll compare CHT’s 2020 PPG numbers to five similarly priced halves (5/8s/HFBs within $100k of his price): Kyle Flanagan ($524,600), Luke Keary ($521,200), Mitchell Moses ($481,000), George Williams ($467,600) and Ash Taylor ($430,300).
For this PPG comparison, we will only use Harris-Tavita’s numbers from when he became starting halfback at the Warriors as that is what he will be in 2021 (before then he was playing as a non-dominant 5/8 next to Blake Green, or even as a utility off the bench).
In the base stat category (tackles + hit ups), CHT (22 BPPG) ranks ahead of Taylor (18 BPPG), Keary (19 BPPG) and Moses (21 BPPG), but behind Flanagan (25 BPPG) and Williams (26 BPPG).
In the evasive category (line breaks + tackle breaks + offloads), Harris-Tavita averaged 6 EPPG, which is more than Flanagan (2.6 EPPG), but behind Taylor (6.2 EPPG), Moses (7.2 EPPG), Williams (8.3 EPPG) and Keary (9.4 EPPG).
Creatively (try assists + line break assists + forced drop outs), Harris-Tavita excelled once he moved to starting #7, averaging 24.9 CPPG, which is more than the season averages of Keary (23.9 CPPG), Taylor (21.4 CPPG), Williams (16.8 CPPG), Moses (16.4 CPPG) and Flanagan (14.3 CPPG).
Therefore, while CHT’s pure base of 22 PPG is similar to the others, as is his average evasive PPG, his average CPPG of nearly 25 since becoming the chief playmaker at the Warriors means that he tops the pack in this category giving him greater upside.
We’ll now compare CHT’s 60+ and <30 score percentages with the others over the last two seasons.
In terms of 60+ scores, CHT has gone 60+ in 47% of matches, which is bettered by Keary (56%), but better than Flanagan (43%), Williams (42%), Moses (39%) and Taylor (22%).
Finally, CHT scored <30 in 16% of games, which is better than Taylor (28%) and Keary (25%), the same as Moses (16%) and Williams (16%), but not as good as Flanagan (15%).
This demonstrates that Harris-Tavita is a safer pick than Keary and Taylor, but a higher upside pick than Moses, Williams and Flanagan.
Overall, Harris-Tavita’s SuperCoach numbers stack up favourably against other mid-priced halves in Keary, Moses, Flanagan, Williams and Taylor.
The Fixtures
The Warriors begin their season against the Titans, who gave up on average 56.8 PPG to halfbacks last season. They then play the Knights and Raiders, who CHT has high SuperCoach scores of 78 and 81 against. In round 4, the Warriors will take on the Roosters at the SCG which will be a difficult match for CHT to score points in. However, CHT will come up against the Sea Eagles in round 5, a team he has excelled against so far in his career, with SuperCoach scores of 75, 73 and 107 points. In round 6, CHT will then play the Dragons, who conceded 68.5 PPG to halfbacks over the last 6 rounds of last season.
The Prospects
Coming in at $425,900 and with dual HFB/5/8 positioning, CHT is an appealing pick to begin the 2021 season.
He’s definitely not in the top echelon of SuperCoach halves, but the statistics show that once he nailed down the starting #7 jersey at the Warriors, Harris-Tavita excelled and became an vital cog in the Warriors attack.
Now playing behind a much improved Warriors forward pack, it appears likely that CHT will have more attacking opportunities this season.
The improved forward pack will also give Harris-Tavita, who dominated the Warriors short kicking at the end of last season, more opportunities to kick in behind and force drop outs.
His link up play with Tuivasa-Sheck was quite good at the back end of last season, and expect it to improve again in 2021 with CHT now a permanent fixture in the Warriors team.
With new signing Euan Aitken expected to line up outside Harris-Tavita (with Hiku outside Nikorima), Harris-Tavita now has a strong ball running centre outside him (one who rarely passes the ball), so this boosts his line break assist and try assist prospects.
Moreover, regardless of whether Ben-Murdoch-Masila or Eli Katoa start at edge back-row next to Harris-Tavita, the young halfback will have a strong and intelligent line runner outside him to provide short balls to, which should provide Harris-Tavita with further avenues to score creative points.
Therefore, given his cheap price, dual positioning, solid base with goal kicking and creative upside, those looking to run with one gun half and one mid-priced half should seriously consider picking Chanel Harris-Tavita.
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