As the new Premier League season draws ever-closer, I decided now might be a good time to look through the three teams that are joining the big time this season - West Brom, Fulham and (I’m not sure if you’ve heard) Leeds. There are a few players that stand out to me as viable FPL options, so lets get stuck into some analysis.
Stuart Dallas (4.5m) – Leeds United
Leeds United boasted the best defensive record in the Championship last season, conceding just 35 goals in the 46 game long season, ultimately being the driving force in their title- winning campaign. Comparatively, West Brom conceded 45 and Fulham conceded 48 goals throughout the season. Because of Leeds’ focus on their defence, I think this makes them a great budget option for your FPL teams, and Stuart Dallas seems the best pick.
The key stats I looked for when picking from Leeds’ defensive options were their minutes played (ensuring they’re nailed in the starting XI is key), attacking contributions (goals, assists) amongst other more detailed statistics.
Dallas played 3935 minutes last season which ranked him 2nd behind only Ben White in the squad. In his 45 league appearances he contributed with 5 goals and 3 assists as well as keeping 19 clean sheets. In terms of FPL points this would’ve resulted in an impressive 115 points on top of his minutes total of approximately 90 points, not accounting for any bonus points he would’ve picked up on the way. Obviously he won’t be able to recreate those clean sheet bonuses in the EPL this season, but it does highlight the potential returns for Dallas. A good comparison for a clean sheet drop off is Sheffield United as, in the 18/19 promotion season they conceded 41 goals and kept 21 clean sheets. Sheffield United went on to keep 13 clean sheets in the 19/20 EPL season, a drop off of 38%. If Leeds were to replicate a similar performance they would also keep around 10-13 clean sheets this season, which would rank them in the top half for clean sheets (based on the 19/20 campaign). Dallas also missed 7 big chances last season. Bielsa will know the importance of clinical finishing this season and I’d expect them generally to convert a much higher percentage of big chances, which indicates Dallas could bag himself more goals, as he clearly gets into the right positions. The key selling point though, is the fact Dallas is incredibly versatile, making him an OOP (out of position) prospect. Last season, Stuart played 17 games at LB/LWB, 12 games at RB/RWB, 9 games as a RM and 8 games as a CM. These 17 games as a midfielder add a lot of weight to the potential attacking returns Dallas carries in comparison to other Leeds defenders and for that reason he’s in my initial GWK 1 draft.
Matheus Pereira (6.0m) – West Bromwich Albion
Matheus Pereira is WBA’s star man and will be keen to emulate his incredible 19/20 campaign in the Premier League this season after signing for the Baggies on a permanent basis for £8 million from Sporting Lisbon. The Brazilian notched 8 goals and an incredible 16 assists last season but his stats get better and better as you look deeper. Pereira created 20 big chances for his teammates, averaged 1.9 shots per game and averaged a 7.45 rating (SofaScore).
West Brom managed to score 77 goals in the championship last season, 2nd behind Brentford who just fell short in the playoff final, of course. Based on the average goals scored of a bottom half Premier League team last season (43.8), I would expect West Brom to score in the region of 40-45 goals this season, leaving a good scope for Pereira to rack up some FPL points.
His price of 6.0m makes him an exciting differential and, whilst WBA have a tough opening 3 games of the season, he is definitely one to watch to bring in for GWK 4-12 once their fixtures become a little easier, facing just two ‘big 6’ sides in those 9 games.
Aleksander Mitrovic (6.0m) – Fulham
An impossible figure to leave out of this list, Mitrovic smashed in an incredible 26 goals last season, earning him the golden boot. On top of his 26 goals, Mitrovic also missed 12 big chances last season and received an average match rating of 7.18, highlighting his impressive performances to back up his goal tally. He is Fulham’s talisman and will certainly be looking to better his tally of 11 goals in Fulham’s relegation season 2 years ago.
There are certainly examples of strikers who have unbelievable records in the Championship but don’t make the step up to the Premier League; Billy Sharp, Dwight Gayle and Oliver McBurnie to name a few recent examples of strikers with similar Championship records that didn’t make any impression on our FPL teams. However, with Mitrovic’s premier league experience I believe he will be able to bag around 15 goals this season, making him an excellent option for FPL at just 6.0m.
Fulham have a kind first 9 games back in the top flight, facing no top 6 teams from last season in their opening 9 games; including notably easier fixtures at home to Villa, Palace and WBA. Because of their opening fixtures I’ve decided to have Mitro in my FPL team from the off to avoid ‘missing the boat’ on him. Despite the aforementioned risks involved in this pick there is a degree of comfort in his Premier League experience that reduces it slightly making this is one of those semi-leaps of faith that FPL is all about.
Jack Harrison (5.5m) – Leeds United
To round off the shortlist of my potential promoted gems for the season, I’ve decided to go with Jack Harrison. As a 5.5m midfielder, he is an excellent rotation option with the likes of Saint-Maximin for your final midfield option, to allow you to combine the likes of Salah and Aubameyang. With 6 goals and 8 assists last season, combined with his youthful age of just 23, Jack will be keen to show the world he has what it takes to play in the Premier League this season.
Having already touched on Leeds’ impressive defensive record in the Championship last season, they also scored 73 goals, with Harrison contributing to 14 of those (19%). The main draw to Harrison, however, are his underlying stats. Creating 17 big chances and missing 12 himself, it’s clear to see the potential he possesses for both assisting and scoring on a more regular basis as he develops more as a footballer.
As well as his potential, Harrison is already a nailed on starter in the Leeds squad, starting 45 games last season, and averaging 83 minutes per game. This makes him an even more appealing option as he is a lot more likely to start than some other options at a similar price- Diangana, Djenepo and Saka to name a few. However, it’s definitely possible that ASM (Allan Saint-Maximin) continues his much better post-lockdown form and could be a great option as well at the same price.
Summary
To round things off, there are definitely a lot of potential good options from the promoted sides to pick from this season, with Leeds’ defence being my personal favourite in terms of value. Stuart Dallas is an excellent way in at just 4.5m with the extra benefit of OOP (out of position) potential. West Brom midfielder Matheus Pereira is another well priced (6.0m) attacking midfielder with fantastic attacking return potential with both his keen eye for goal and high assist tally last season. Aleksander Mitrovic will almost certainly be Fulham’s top scorer this season and it would be no surprise to see him bag 10-15 goals, which at 6.0m would be a solid points-per-million ratio. And finally the riskiest selection- Jack Harrison is a rapidly developing player who will be keen to impress on the big stage and looks a well-priced differential at just 5.5m, if he can find his feet in the Premier League.
Dallas – BUY
Pereira – WAIT (for GWK 4)
Mitrovic – BUY
Harrison – WAIT (for form)